Currently the United States and Iran are run by increasingly unpopular and obviously incompetent leaders. Both leaders can derive political benefits by painting the other in a negative light. Thus they ratchet up the rhetoric; in Mr. Ahmadinejad’s case the United States presents a common enemy that stirs patriotic sentiment in the otherwise disillusioned Iranian population. In Mr. Bush’s case the “axis of evil” member Iran can be used to distract from the Iraq fiasco and may even (from Bush’s point of view) redeem Mr. Bush’s entire mid-east strategy with has so far been a disaster. There is a chance that Mr. Bush is preparing for military action against Iran. Read this for a likely scenario if the U.S. commences unilateral air strikes against Iran’s nuclear and military installations. Mr. Bush is not a wise leader. But even his recklessness may have limitations. Thus I do not think that Mr. Bush will commence military strikes against Iran. But I would not bet on this prediction. In fact, there are others predicting the oposite, that war with Iran is near.
The real power center in the U.S. administration is vice president Cheney. Mr. Cheney does not have a reputation to loose and only a couple of more years to live. He may want to be remembered fondly by people that share his mind set and take the gamble of attacking Iran. Cheney is far out and not constrained by reality, so who knows.
