Conflict resolution starts with an understanding of what motivates both parties. According to President Obama, the U.S. motivation in Afghanistan is “National Security”. He closed his address on 1 December 2009 at West Point with this:
…So, no, I do not make this decision lightly. I make this decision because I am convinced that our security is at stake in Afghanistan and Pakistan…President Obama, 1 December 2009 at West Point.
During his speech the President conflated Al Qaeda (of which there are less than 100 in Afghanistan at this time) with the Taliban, a type of violent reactionary political movement of which there are several flavors, such a the Afghan Taliban, the Pakistani Taliban and other splinter groups. So what motivates all these “enemies of the U.S.”? Why are willing to fight the U.S.? What’s in it for them?
As far as I can make out this:
1. Desperate poverty and hopelessness combined with illiteracy and lack of basic education. Under such conditions young men will be drawn to taking up arms and fight whoever. What do they have to loose? Nothing. Remember this: The poverty in Afghanistan is almost beyond imagining. Thirty Afghans die from TB every day; life expectancy is 43 years; per capita income is $426; only 13% have access to sanitary drinking water; fewer than one in four are literate; access to electricity is among the lowest in the world. Conditions for women are brutal.
2. Americans occupy their country and provide unquestioning support for the hated Zionists. Taken together with point 1 this provides a powerful motivation for Afghan young men to join the Taliban and fight “the invaders”. Let’s face it, if tables were turned, the U.S. a desperately poor backward nation, its youth uneducated and without any future, desperately poor and occupied by an advanced Muslim country that provides unquestioning support for another country that slaughters your Christian brothers and keeps them stateless, what would YOU do? You get my drift, I think…
3. A non-functioning extremely corrupt government that can not provide basic services: Afghans want stability and security and will turn to whoever can supply such. Most Afghans have contempt for the current Government and its U.S. supported head of state.
How does the addition of 30,000 U.S. troops change the motivational factors on the Al Qaeda/Taliban side? Is it more likely to make matters worse or better? I would predict that without SUBSTANTIALLY addressing points 1 thru 3 it will make matters worse. My prediction is that in 18 months from now the U.S. will not be able to withdraw any troops because if it does the Taliban will immediately return. Afghanistan is going to be an open-ended commitment for the U.S. if under the current strategy.
What to do?
Unlike the mainly military escalation that was just announced by President Obama what which he alone came up with during the course of the last three month, a real solution to the Afghan issue needs to bring several parties (Pakistan, India , Afghanistan’s current government and political opposition and the Taliban) together to the table to talk about how to best serve the people of Afghanistan. This would address issue 1 above, the main motivational force.What the U.S. and its allies may do is pursue a divide and conquer strategy: Instead of trying to control the entire Afghan country, establish smaller safe zones, secure them, let the people within these zones hold free local elections while ensuring that corruption is minimal and security and public services are working. This strategy does not offer quick returns and requires that the U.S. and its allies greatly increase economic assistance while also providing security for a transitional period. At the same time, the U.S. needs to be seen more as an honest broker in the Middle-East conflict, not just as a part of the Zionist Israeli government. It needs to make the Palestinian cause its own, push Israel towards a just and equitable solution to the problem of Palestinian statehood. Together with a decrease in U.S. combat forces these measures would address point 2 above. This would not be a military solution and would require a long-term economic involvement of the U.S. and its allies. Think Marshal Plan.
If the U.S. is not willing to make this effort, it should get out of Afghanistan NOW instead of prolonging the killing. President Obama is not a transformational leader. He buckled under pressure and took the politically most expedient course. The only problems he will have are with his conscience and, down the road, with trying to shift the blame back to those who applied the political pressure that made his chosen course of action the most opportune.
